The Sentencing Act 2026 is one of the most significant recent developments in prison law. It aims to ease the capacity crisis while reshaping sentencing and release arrangements across England and Wales.
The reforms include a presumption in favour of suspended sentences for some shorter custodial terms, revised release provisions and a new Progression Model, which came into force on 1st October 2026.
What Has Changed?
Before October 2026, many prisoners serving Standard Determinate Sentences (SDS) were released automatically after 40% of their custodial term under SDS40, or after 50% under existing legislation. Many eligible prisoners may now be released after one-third of their sentence, with the remainder served on licence in the community under supervision.
For certain more serious determinate sentences, the release point has reduced from two-thirds to one-half of the custodial term. Serious offences remain excluded.
Who Is Excluded?
Following review and consultation, the Progression Model does not apply to prisoners serving sentences for:
- Rape
- Serious child sexual offences
- Organised child sexual exploitation offences
- Certain unlawful killing offences, including manslaughter
- Indeterminate and life sentences
- Extended Determinate Sentences requiring Parole Board consideration
Why Does This Matter?
The reforms respond directly to severe overcrowding. Projections showed demand continuing to exceed available prison places without intervention. The Progression Model is intended to create capacity while retaining licence supervision and recall powers for those released into the community.
Implementation is phased from October 2026 to June 2027, with eligible prisoners released in tranches.
Earlier release opportunities may also create disputes. Prisoners may need advice about:
- Whether they qualify under the Progression Model
- Sentence calculation and revised release dates
- Licence conditions and recall proceedings
- Categorisation and progression decisions
- Access to rehabilitation programmes affecting release planning
- Challenges to exclusions from the scheme
With prisons under sustained pressure, correct release calculations and access to lawful progression opportunities are increasingly important. Specialist advice can help identify and resolve errors or delays.
Prison overcrowding crisis
Prisons across England and Wales are operating close to or above capacity. Although early-release initiatives and sentencing reforms aim to reduce pressure, many prisoners still face delays in progression, transfers, rehabilitation and parole reviews.
Official Ministry of Justice figures show that 23.9% of prisoners in England and Wales were held in crowded accommodation during 2025–26: almost one in four. Crowding concerns accommodation occupied by more prisoners than it was designed to hold, such as two people sharing a cell intended for one. This differs from operational capacity, which measures how many prisoners an establishment can hold taking account of control, security and the proper operation of its planned regime. A prison can therefore operate within its operational capacity while still using crowded cells.
These pressures affect prisoners and their families. Restricted access to offending behaviour courses, family contact and timely categorisation reviews can hinder progression and preparation for release.
The consequences extend beyond a shortage of beds. HM Inspectorate of Prisons’ 2024–25 annual report identified prisoners sharing small cells, poor physical conditions and excessive time locked up, alongside insufficient access to education and work. Inspectors also found that some prisoners could not always attend healthcare appointments and that transfers could involve long journeys. These findings illustrate why capacity must be considered alongside the quality of daily prison life, rather than simply the number of places available.
Population figures also require careful interpretation. There were 85,858 prisoners in England and Wales on 30 June 2026, 2% fewer than a year earlier, yet the annual crowding figures show that sharing accommodation beyond its intended occupancy remained widespread. A reduction in the overall population does not, by itself, demonstrate that overcrowding has been resolved. Assessing the effect of sentencing and release reforms therefore requires attention to both available space and prisoners’ access to meaningful activity, rehabilitation and preparation for release.
Overcrowding helps explain the Act’s approach to both entry into prison and release from custody. Section 1 introduces a presumption to suspend custodial sentences of 12 months or less, subject to statutory exceptions, while section 2 allows courts to suspend eligible custodial sentences of up to three years. These measures can reduce immediate admissions to custody where a suspended sentence is appropriate; they do not abolish short prison sentences. At the
other end of the sentence, the Progression Model reduces the time eligible prisoners spend in custody before moving into community supervision, creating space without shortening the overall sentence imposed.
The intended connection is therefore practical: fewer immediate custodial admissions and shorter custodial periods for eligible prisoners can ease pressure on accommodation. However, freeing places is not the same as resolving the restricted regimes, programme shortages and progression delays described above. The reforms also move responsibility towards probation, with intensive supervision followed by a final licence stage and continuing recall powers. Their success should therefore be assessed against both prison conditions and the capacity of community services to support rehabilitation and manage risk, rather than release numbers alone.
Understanding Your Rights
Prisoners retain important legal rights in custody. Decisions on sentence calculation, categorisation, parole, recall, adjudications and rehabilitation must be lawful, fair and proportionate. Legal representation may help where delay or unreasonable decisions cause disadvantage.
Specialist prison law practitioners can advise on:
- Parole Board applications and reviews
- Recall to custody cases
- Categorisation decisions
- Sentence progression delays
- Adjudications and disciplinary proceedings
- Judicial review of unlawful prison decisions
- Resettlement and release issues
Capacity pressures have made administrative delays more common. Seeking advice early may improve a prisoner’s ability to challenge decisions affecting release or progression.
If you or a family member faces parole delays, recall proceedings, categorisation issues or concerns about sentence progression, specialist advice can help protect your rights.
If you or someone you care about is facing any of these issues, please remember that you do not have to deal with them alone. We have a dedicated team of specialist prison law lawyers with extensive experience across all areas of prison law.
This depth of knowledge means we can match your circumstances with a lawyer who understands the particular issue you are facing and can provide practical, informed advice from the outset.
Our team will take the time to listen, explain what is happening in clear terms and help you understand the options available.
We can check whether the Progression Model applies, review sentence and release-date calculations, challenge unfair delays or decisions, and represent you in parole, recall, categorisation, adjudication and judicial review matters, licence conditions, rehabilitation, resettlement and planning for release.
By working together and drawing on the experience of the wider team, we can provide support even where a case involves several complex or overlapping issues. Whatever your circumstances, we will treat you and your family with care and respect, keep you informed and provide clear, confidential advice at every stage.
